Political Cartel

This question may turn out to be the proverbial wrench in the engine for the Obama campaign. From the NY Times:

Senator Barack Obama said Thursday that he might “refine” his policies for Iraq after meeting with military commanders there later this summer. But hours later he held a second news conference to emphasize his commitment to the withdrawal of all combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.

The seemingly confusing and contradictory rhetoric may appropriately illustrate the complex question facing Obama and his campaign: what happens next in Iraq? The answer isn’t as simple as it has been portrayed. Complete withdrawal, aside from being a logistical nightmare, isn’t as politically or strategically savvy as it has been made out to be.

Contrary to popular belief and even statements made by Obama himself, the likelihood of a “withdrawal” from Iraq in 16 months (as has been the standard “stump” answer given by Obama) isn’t an accurate representation of the pending reality. The concept of “pulling out of Iraq” is nothing but a game of perception. The Obama campaign is going to make it seem as if America will leave Iraq; however, the truth of the matter is that although Obama may implement a new strategy (which could include a phased reduction in troops), a complete withdrawal of all combat troops within 16 months (set aside from its logistical barriers) is a political and strategic misrepresentation of what will actually happen.

What probably will happen is something similar to what I wrote about earlier this year. A transition to a “residual force” or an “over the horizon” force is one possibility. However, it is also very possible that Obama will make that claim that in order to maintain peace and security in a highly volatile region, the necessary amount of U.S. forces will be kept in Iraq — of course Obama, with his rhetorical skill, will make the comment more elegantly and in a way that will seem more accepting to those of the “pull out of Iraq” cohort in the American political society.

There is a possibility that the question of what is really going to happen in Iraq may turn into a sort of evolving standard for Obama. I’ve always sensed a certain divide between what Obama says about Iraq and what may actually happen. It isn’t as easy as saying “I will implement a plan that will withdrawal all American combat troops within 16 months of my inauguration.” It’s a great political one-liner and it resonates well with many people. However, I, personally, wouldn’t put much stock in the 16 month withdrawal time line.

I don’t doubt Obama’s ability to work his way around this tempestuous and complex question. And I am, by no means, stating that Obama is a two-faced, flip-flopper. The question of Iraq isn’t something you can answer for the American people in one 15 minute speech. What to do in Iraq is a complicated question with an answer equally, if not more, complicated.