This morning, the Myanmar Cyclone Nargis victim estimates reached 1.5 million displaced people and nearly 200,000 dead. Almost 2,000 square miles are still under water, and rain is in the forecast for the Irrawaddy Delta region. People are gathering in tiny makeshift refugee camps, which means that the spread of diseases such as diarrhea and malaria will spread very quickly. In one extreme case, there are exactly 5 latrines for 3,500 people in a camp. A bag of rice costs upwards of $35.
In spite of these horrendous numbers and the accelerating deterioration of the situation, the government of Myanmar is still wary of foreign aid. They are very reluctant to accept assistant from a country like the US, for fear that we are working to sabotage their military regime. A vast majority of the world would doubtless like to see the junta ended, but this is not the time to consider politics. Humanitarian aid should come without strings attached. It should be delivered and accepted with no question when so many lives are at great risk. We cannot do anything to prevent natural disasters from occurring (except perhaps shrink our carbon footprint), but we can at least respond to them quickly and efficiently.
Medicins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) works exclusively in regions facing natural disasters, war, or anything that creates a health crisis. MSF, along with many other NGOs like World Vision, is working tirelessly to distribute the resources necessary to keep the Burmese refugees healthy, but their efforts are continuously blocked by the junta. In order to keep a favorable image, the military regime wants all aid to be channeled through themselves, so they’re blocking visas and keeping supplies for themselves. In the face of such irrational behavior which is further endangering Burmese citizens’ lives, what are our other options?
1. Deliver aid from Thailand. Yesterday, Admiral Keating and Harriet Foreman, the head of the US Agency for International Development, flew into Myanmar from Thailand to meet with the top Burmese naval officer in what the Washington Post called “the highest-level military contact between the two countries in decades.” Fore reported that the discussions were “a good first step” toward further US aid. The US will have three naval ships, each stocked with helicopters and aid supplies, off the coast of Burma within 48 hours. The helicopters can begin air-lifting supplies into Burma as soon as they receive permission.
2. Look at diplomatic options. The US should avoid anything that remotely resembles a unilateral intervention. This should not be about politics, but the junta’s policy of retaining power at all costs, regardless of lives lost, forces the world system to consider them. Probably, nothing can be accomplished politically unless China* begins to lean on their neighbor. Unfortunately, they have already forbade the UN Security Council from acting, stating that the Council is supposed to be used for threats to international peace.
*(Of course, China’s got it’s own problems now: an estimated 12,000 died in an earthquake this morning. Fortunately, the relief efforts began quickly and the government is doing everything it can to aid survivors and find victims trapped under the rubble.)
3. Consider a coalition. Burmese authorities are much more likely to allow aid from a Western coalition than from any single Western state. Safety in numbers.
Hopefully the junta will relent and allow aid to flow unchecked over its borders. Until then, the US, ASEAN, and the UN should think outside the box and find a way to relieve the suffering. My thoughts and prayers go out to the victims in Myanmar and China today.

10 comments
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May 13, 2008 at 3:29 pm
S.C. Denney
It’s understandable that a nation ruled by a military junta would be skeptical of “aid” from nations like the U.S. It’s unfortunate though that the people who suffer from this skepticism is the people in the need of the aid.
Unless there is some sort of hidden ulterior motive, it appears that the U.S. is more than ready to provide disaster relief to Myanmar — an entire task force is awaiting Burmese authorization. Perhaps what the Myanmar government is most fearful of is what will the task force (some 1800 U.S. Marines) do when the relief work is dwindling down?
Maybe this is too bold of a prediction to make, but I’ll make it anyway. If Western relief is allowed en masse, democratic reforms will soon follow.
May 13, 2008 at 4:20 pm
jkkuwitzky
The junta is afraid that a modern, efficient relief effort by an international force made up of states it instructs its people to fear would expose the gross incompetence of the ruling regime and thus spur further desire for democratic and market reform.
And yes, I fear your prediction is indeed too bold. Perhaps reform is in the works, but I wouldn’t be expecting it anytime soon.
May 13, 2008 at 6:12 pm
S.C. Denney
I’m not sympathetic to the junta, in any way, shape, or form. I’m just expressing why, to them, it is a rational decision to control aid in and out of the country. Your statement isn’t off the mark, at all.
Indeed too bold?
My statement isn’t outlandish. IMF/SAPs sound familiar? Polish Solidarity reforms, post-Cold War; S.E. Asian reforms, post-tsunami? These types of reforms are typically introduced after a disaster. It is ultimately disaster that ripens a population, country, or region for reform. I’m not saying this is entirely a bad thing (perhaps it is entirely a good thing). I’m simply making the connection that in times of great distress is the opportune time for real change and reform to occur.
Naomi Klein calls it the disaster-capitalism complex. She throws a more negative spin on the concept; I’m not going that far. I will say, however, that if the Western powers are allowed to enter into Myanmar, unrestricted, certain changes (political and market) will more than likely ensue.
Let me re-emphasize, for clarity’s sake, that I’m not a conspiracy bent anarchist (or anything near to that), but I do think there’s an opening for major change in the region.
May 13, 2008 at 8:11 pm
gino
“I’m not sympathetic to the junta, in any way, shape, or form. I’m just expressing why, to them, it is a rational decision to control aid in and out of the country.”
I found this post and links an interesting read.
What’s going on in Myanmar is irrational to the outside world, but quite rational to the Junta.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191196/?from=rss
May 13, 2008 at 8:37 pm
jkkuwitzky
Re: the link to the Anne Applebaum column making the case for intervention, the more I think about this the angrier I get. The junta has forfeited any right to sovereignty that might have justified respecting their wishes (however rational they might be from a regime survival perspective). I don’t know much about the logistics, but it seems like a massive airlift of supplies might be possible and a good idea.
May 20, 2008 at 8:42 am
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May 20, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Jesse
lifting sanctions might help!!
U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST BURMA
http://www.cato.org/pubs/trade/tpa-001.html
Salvation by Starvation
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/singleton-a2.html
besides…..
everyone knows the american military has far superior morals than ex-burma’s
of course they won’t let us in!! it would no dount become a place of peace and trade!!
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2005/cr120705.htm
December 7, 2005
“A policy that endorses peace over war, trade over sanctions, courtesy over arrogance, and liberty over coercion is in the tradition of the American Constitution and American idealism. It deserves consideration.”
May 20, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Jesse
what’s ironic too is that the numbers cited above regarding displaced and dead are in similar comparison to the tragedy in Iraq. And although some are calling for immediate action to take root in Myanmar, the excuse in Iraq is that the situation could get worse if any immediate action is taken…..hmmm…..
May 20, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Jesse
http://www.ericmargolis.com/
interestingly, eric margolis brings up the china connection with reference to the situation in Burma.
(if anyone has been watching the news you have no doubt heard the negative coverage of china, often in parallel with russia. my first thought is NATO)
anyhow, margolis continues :
“This is the kind of operation that America’s armed forces should be doing instead of bombing tribesmen in Afghanistan and Somalia.
However, the Pentagon would very much like to oust Chinese influence from Burma. So would India, China’s Asian rival. The disaster in Burma offers an interesting opportunity to begin loosening the junta’s hold on power and asserting Western influence in a strategic, potentially resource-rich nation that has been in self-isolation from the world since the 1960’s.”
ah yes, gotta love the state…..
http://www.mises.org/store/State-The-P285.aspx?AFID=14
And then he went on to define the state, or government, as “the organization of the political means,” i.e., the regularization, legitimation, and permanent establishment of the political means for the acquisition of wealth.
May 20, 2008 at 6:10 pm
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