First and foremost, it is evident that this thing will go to the bitter end. Other than that, I have a few politically innocuous observations about the primary, post Indiana/N.C.:
- Obama cleaned up in North Carolina, as expected.
- Clinton did not win Indiana by enough to convince her skeptics that she’s still in the race; however, she did win, which justifies, in her eyes, staying in the race.
- In Indiana, Obama took the urbanites, the African Americans, and the moderates Independents — again.
- In Indiana, Clinton took the less-affluent, white, rural folk — again. The white voters with no college degree went for Clinton 65 percent to 34 percent.
- The Elitist label and the Rev. Wright vitriol didn’t have the effect the Clinton’s hoped for. Neither did the rural “bittergate.” When voters were asked which candidate did they “shared their values” with, Obama beat Clinton.
- Clinton will have further fundraising issues; especially now that the media has come full swing against her. Many of the political pundits have declared the race over and Obama the long awaited nominee. This will add to the treasure chest complex for the Clinton camp. Evidence that the Clinton campaign is running low on dough is the 6.4 million that Clinton lent herself last month.
- Obama furthers his popular vote lead. Obama has 16.3 million votes, compared to 15.5 million for Clinton. Ignoring the voters who chose “uncommitted” in Michigan, where he was not on the ballot, Mr. Obama has a 230,000 vote advantage.
- The race will come down to the super-delegates. With it requiring nothing short of a primary miracle, Clinton has no shot at raking in the required 2,025 required to secure the nomination. Obama with 1,836 delegates, needs just over 30% of the remaining delegates (including super) to reach the delegate brink; Conversely, Clinton, with 1,678, needs over 60%.
- The Clinton camp has been arguing that the full number of delegates needed to claim the nomination is 2,209, which includes Florida and Michigan, as opposed to 2,025. If those delegates are seated, Obama would need about 43 percent of the delegates that remain.
Clinton is going to get desperate, who wouldn’t? I’m not blaming her. She’s invested a lot of time, energy, and money (especially her own). I would do the same. However, this doesn’t make it right nor is it helpful to the Democratic cause. The pleads to up the required delegate count and include both Michigan and Florida in the count is prophetic of the political desperation to come from Clinton.
Personally, I think it’s time for Clinton to cut her losses and withdrawal so the DNC can coalesce around a nominee. Personal convictions and wishes aside, I know that’s not likely to occur. So, brace youselves, it’s going to be a derisive and divisive end to a tight race.
David M. Manes
Chris McNeal
S.C. Denney
kcross
16 comments
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May 7, 2008 at 7:31 pm
David M. Manes
The media coverage is so unfavorable to Clinton right now, I almost feel sorry for her.
Everyone seems to be calling for her to drop out. You may be right that this will go on and become ugly, but I think Obama seems to be doing a good job trying to reconcile and bring the party together.
May 7, 2008 at 8:27 pm
S.C. Denney
Obama only has the play the part he’s been playing all along.
Here are some quotes from the political pundits:
“I think there’s an increasing presumption tonight that Obama’s going to be the nominee,” Chris Wallace, the Fox News host, said to Karl Rove,
A posting on the DailyKos Web site included a mock memo to Mrs. Clinton titled, “To-Do List Before Dropping Out.”
Speaking on CNN, David Gergen, a former adviser to several presidents, including Mrs. Clinton’s husband, said, “I think the Clinton people know the game is almost up.”
Stating it more bluntly, Bob Franken, the political analyst, told the MSNBC host Dan Abrams shortly after 2 a.m. Eastern time, “Let’s put it right on the table: It’s over. It’s over.”
Bob Schieffer on the CBS News program “Early Show”: “Basically, Maggie, this race is over.”
George Stephanopoulos on the ABC program “Good Morning America”: “This nomination fight is over.”
Matt Lauer on the NBC News program “Today”: “Good morning, is it over?”
May 7, 2008 at 8:53 pm
gino
The only thing that should be of concern, as this contest moves forward, is if the media latches on to some perceived political gaffe made by Obama.
I may be a bit paranoid, but that is obviously part of the Clinton game plan.
Oh, how the media would revel in that circus should something conveniently come to light…..
“The Clinton camp has been arguing that the full number of delegates needed to claim the nomination is 2,209, which includes Florida and Michigan, as opposed to 2,025. If those delegates are seated, Obama would need about 43 percent of the delegates that remain.”
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/6/12531/12442/490/510054
May 7, 2008 at 9:13 pm
jkkuwitzky
I’ve made my concession speech elsewhere and don’t think I can do it again. I’ll just say once again that its over (I’ve resigned whatever meager role I had in the campaign), and that its good to be back on the same team again.
That said, I must quarrel with your claim that Obama won the “moderates” in Indiana. There, as elsewhere recently, the further to the left a primary voter is the more likely they are to vote for Obama. In Indiana that played out to be 54-46 Clinton among moderates and 60-40 Clinton among “somewhat conservative” voters. I’m also skeptical as to Wright/Bittergate not significantly damaging the Obama brand (I think its fairly obvious that it has) and hurting his chances with working class whites. I guess we’ll have plenty of time for discussing that down the road.
May 7, 2008 at 10:13 pm
S.C. Denney
I was thinking the tall tale sign of the Wright/Bittergate would have been a less significant win in N.C. and a larger margin of defeat in Indiana. Other than the attacks he’s already absorbed, could it get worse?
As to the moderate vote, I used CNN’s exit poll data, which shows an Independent 54-46 Obama. As you pointed out, this isn’t accurate. I see a 53-47 Clinton amongst moderate ideology. I will edit my post to reflect this. You are right in saying that those of a moderate ideology voted for Clinton. Independents seemed to have voted for Obama. To hedge the “somewhat conservative” advantage for Clinton, I see a 53-47 Obama for “somewhat liberal,” for what it matters.
May 7, 2008 at 10:19 pm
David M. Manes
Good to have you, Kuwitzky. I’m sure we’ll find plenty of things to discuss in the future. Your insights are always very… insightful.
May 7, 2008 at 10:25 pm
jkkuwitzky
I think the “somewhat liberal” edge for Obama confirms what I said before about Obama’s appeal increasing as the voter profile moves left.
I’m intrigued by the way both races played out. On both sides you have a candidate with supposedly significant appeal to moderates despite the fact that McCain is pretty conservative and Obama is pretty damn liberal. Conservative usually beats liberal in American politics, but I think this year might be the exception. Obama hasn’t defined himself in a substantive way (outside of a few issues), and that needs to be his first priority as the nominee. I’d suggest a rightward tack on Iraq. I can hear the howls from the lefty activists already….
May 7, 2008 at 10:35 pm
jkkuwitzky
Why do I have a weird flower as my pic stamp on my comments? What are you trying to say?
I’m finding it difficult to have nice things to say about Obama today. This is going to be more difficult than I thought. I really can’t stand that guy.
May 8, 2008 at 12:12 am
S.C. Denney
I’d suggest a rightward tack on Iraq.
We’ll be hearing plenty about an “over the horizon force” or a “residual force” come post-nomination time. It’s the most practical (and responsible?) reaction to those who support responsible withdrawal, those who support continued occupation, and those who support complete withdrawal. Remember, you heard it here first.
Many will cry, I suspect.
May 8, 2008 at 2:57 am
charlie
Really, like I wrote in my previous post under another topic, you guys need to lighten up, have a beer and try to get laid. You’re only in college once. (I do admit I’ve never heard of Harding College. Are the girls that ugly that you’d spend all your time on this blog?)
BTW, Obama can’t win. Too many racist Democrats. (including Mexican/Hispanic Democrats) They won’t vote for him. Go back and search youtube for the Nevada Democratic debate and listen to the Hispanic’s respond to Obama’s performance in the debate. They will not vote for him and several of them almost admitted it on national tv. So, Obama will lose Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio at a minimum, and without those states no Democratic candidate can win.
Then what will the Democrats do? Mass suicides seem likely based on some of the left-wing fringe blogs I’ve read lately…..
May 8, 2008 at 7:48 am
David M. Manes
Charlie, maybe you should stick to the things you obviously excel at - wasting time and making an ass out of yourself at 3 o’clock in the morning.
Leave the thinking to the big boys.
The latest Quinnipiac head to head poll at the state level with a hypothetical Obama vs. McCain race showed Obama behind by just 1 in Ohio and Florida, and ahead by 9 in Pennsylvania. Not bad for Obama who is still in the middle of a bitter primary without having had a chance to unite the party yet. His support will only go up as Clinton supporters come around to support him against McCain.
May 8, 2008 at 9:04 am
Matt
While I was watching the primary results on MSNBC Tuesday night, they made the statement that she knows the race is over and may just stay in to win West Virginia and Kentucky so that she can go out on a high note. If that’s the plan, maybe we’ll see a more positive campaign from Clinton in the next few weeks. What do you think about that?
And Charlie, unless things have changed drastically in the eight years since I graduated, there is no shortage of beautiful women at Harding.
May 8, 2008 at 9:25 am
jkkuwitzky
Perhaps you can send me the recipe for the Obama Kool Aid. Surely there is something more to it than the two parts hope, one part change, and three parts crushing naivete we used to laugh about in Hillaryland.
May 8, 2008 at 11:08 am
S.C. Denney
Joy, joy, is down in my heart, Kolby.
May 8, 2008 at 11:28 am
Zu
I find it interesting that folk will vote for anyone under a particular political banner regardless of their dislike for the possible nominee. Is it a concession for the lesser-of-two-evils argument or just a strong dislike of the opposing political party?
I’m not voting but I find it unfair to request someone bow out of any political race especially when there has been this much back and forth. Personally, I think Hillary should have saved her money. I’ve said Barak will be president since McCain “won” the GOP nod.
I honestly don’t see this as damaging to the DNC as most pundits claim. It’s a great public relations moment and both Hillary and Barak have the opportunity to make their planks more concise and clear. I believe most uneducated voters are going to vote Dem simply b/c of our current president’s many gaffes. If the GOP wins: A. I will be shocked…shocked and B. the DNC has a bigger problem on their hands than deciding on an electable individual. Namely, survival of the party. This is practically a hand off year for the DNC. Everything will be blamed on Bush for the next eight years anyway.
My dollars worth.
May 10, 2008 at 11:23 am
krjohns
As far as the Indiana counties that Obama won, he won the 2 richest, the 3 with colleges, the 3 with a large black population and the one east of Notre Dame. The rest of them, especially those with a lot of blue collar workers went for Clinton.