The Republican Vice Presidential Ticket: Rice?
I read an interesting article today speculating on McCain’s vice president pick. The New Yorker feels that Condoleezza Rice might be the best pick for McCain in the November election and they made some valid points.
One, she would partially offset the black vote should he run against Obama and would partially offset the female vote should he run against Hilary. Sure, more of each will be attracted to the other candidate but as close as I think the race will be, all that matters is if either candidate can pull any votes from the other.
Two, she supports the Iraq philosophy of McCain without all the baggage of Bush or Rumsfeld. Few discussions of Iraq involve Rice; most involve the aforementioned. People of all walks get into a fit when someone mentions Rumsfeld. Few have those same feelings towards Rice.
Three, she has never been party to any executive power struggles such as that between Bush and Powell. She tends to be loyal to the president.
So I have to say, I think Rice might just be that candidate come November.
One, despite her compelling biography she is generally strongly disliked by the vast majority of black voters. She would pick up more black votes than other VP candidates, but not nearly enough to warrant consideration on those grounds.
Two, there are far too many quotes and videotapes of her engaging in the rankest denialism about the failings of the Iraq war. In the public mind, she is among the five people most identified with the war.
Third, (to her credit) she has been involved in plenty of executive power struggles (primarily with Cheney). We probably have her to thank for what diplomatic progress there has been with North Korea and the fact that we have not (yet) attacked Iran.
I’d put her at the bottom of my list of possible candidates. That said, I wish McCain would pick her. She is clearly a capable and intelligent person and, if we must have a Republican administration, we could do far worse.
jkkuwitzky
11 Mar 08 at 2:58 am
She’s such an obscure figure at this point — it’s as if she’s been intentionally marginalized. I am not so sure she’s got the political credibility any longer; she’s been discredited by a failed administration. She’s ultimately used goods, right? Like second-hand stuff.
I don’t see anyone of public recognition from the current administration making a leap to the next. With the exception of Henry Kissinger, debauched administrations usually dump their loads, for good, from the public sector when their time expires — the private sector being a whole other game, though.
S.C. Denney
11 Mar 08 at 3:21 am
One, ff she picked up ANY black voters, that would be better than the next best candidate. Any black voters voting for McCain would be extremely significant.
Two, I think you are confusing the public mind with your mind. You would be right that she is in the top five. I don’t think you are right in saying the public readily identify her as such.
Three, Cheney is not Bush and I don’t remember Bush ever getting in any arguments with her over North Korea or Iran.
Chris McNeal
11 Mar 08 at 3:54 am
I think she is much more linked to the Iraq war than you say, but that may not be a drawback as far as McCain sees it.
I think I agree with Kolby–there are clearly worse people the Republicans would pick. But I sort of expect them to pick someone worse. McCain is already seen as a foreign policy expert, so why not pick someone who brings some more domestic expertise (a governor) to the table?
global
11 Mar 08 at 3:54 am
Right, I’m not advancing that she isn’t tied to the Iraq war. She absolutely is. I’m talking about public perception.
Chris McNeal
11 Mar 08 at 3:56 am
I’ve seen polling/focus group data on this issue that places her in the top five (not that five is any kind of magic threshold). Th complete five consists of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, McCain, and Rice. I might put Paul Wolfowitz and Doug Feith in there instead of Rice and McCain, but the public seems to feel otherwise (that Wolfowitz has been out of sight for more than a while may have something to do with it).
Cheney wielded near presidential authority on foreign and energy policy during the early years of the Bush administration. That Rice was able to edge him out of the decision process was extremely significant (and largely positive).
jkkuwitzky
11 Mar 08 at 4:01 am
McCain’s defense of “staying in Iraq” is that The War was mishandled and improperly waged, right? That said, Condi is inextricably linked to the faux-pas-of-an-invasion that the Bush administration made. If McCain maintains that Iraq needs a more legitimate strategy — or to sustain the “new” one we have now — then Condi will not get the nomination.
Public perception aside, she won’t be nominated, in my opinion of course.
S.C. Denney
11 Mar 08 at 4:03 am
Kolby, what about Elliot Abrams? He was, after all, the Deputy National Security Advisor for Global Democracy Strategy, responsible for advancing Bush’s strategy of advancing democracy abroad and the quintessential neo-con lackey.
S.C. Denney
11 Mar 08 at 4:05 am
I think there is no shortage of people on whom to heap blame for the mistakes in Iraq and no shortage of blame to be heaped upon them.
jkkuwitzky
11 Mar 08 at 4:16 am
On that note, I’ve been making my way through jacob Heilbrunn’s new book (They Knew They Were Right) about the neoconservative movement. Its great. Highly recommended.
jkkuwitzky
11 Mar 08 at 4:19 am
I’m going to guess Heilbrunn is not advocating the neocon position.
Chris McNeal
11 Mar 08 at 4:27 am
Its really a very serious, balanced approach to what has become the ultimate loaded question/term. it approaches the subject more as an intellectual history than a polemic. I am enjoying it immensely, and I have more than a few neocon tendencies.
jkkuwitzky
11 Mar 08 at 4:35 am
Quite honestly, I almost picked it up over spring break. I was afraid, however, that it would to polemicist in prose; that, and my reading list has piled up behind me, literally.
I fare that the “Republicans” are going to weed the neo-cons out right about 2009/10. The Dems are going to have some political wiggle-room, eh?
Ship it to me when you’re done. Thanks.
S.C. Denney
11 Mar 08 at 4:44 am
I’m just worried that the Dems will throw the neoliberal baby out with the neoconservative bath water. Then where would I go? Bloomberg 12?
jkkuwitzky
11 Mar 08 at 4:53 am
Condi has always struck me as this strange, raceless, genderless creature. I wager that she would not bring in a *single extra black or woman vote.
*I use “single” loosely here.
JH
11 Mar 08 at 12:53 pm
Condi is actually one of those people who is very popular with Republican rank and file voters. McCain, when running against Barack, will need to make a difference, and will need someone whom Independents and Republicans can say, “oh, sure, if McCain dies, she could be President”.
That’s what Cheney has done to the office in the Republican Party. “Ticket Balancing” doesn’t wash anymore.
Low rent Movement Types like Pawlenty and Sanford just don’t cut it right now, primarily because the war will remain a central issue. There is no way McCain will run away from it, so he will not try. Rice remains his most logical choice.
section9
11 Mar 08 at 1:46 pm
Rice is way too much of a Bush lap dog to be of any use to the ‘08 Republican nominee. McCain will already have enough trouble getting out from under Bush’s shadow (on Iraq, fiscal policy, etc) without bringing on such a key member of the Bush administration.
Plus, from a different level, Rice wouldn’t really add anything to the ticket. She would represent some foreign affairs experience and some national security experience, but those are already McCain’s two biggest strengths. So he shouldn’t want Condi and he doesn’t need Condi.
David M Manes
11 Mar 08 at 2:14 pm
Yeah but this is party politics. Of course you want a party lap dog.
Chris McNeal
11 Mar 08 at 2:54 pm
I didn’t say Rice was a party lap dog, because as you say, that wouldn’t necessarily be a problem. But her being a Bush lap dog is very much a problem. Bush’s approval is atrociously low, largely due to the disaster that is Iraq. Nobody in the administration is more implicated in that than Rice is right now. She would be terrible for McCain’s ticket.
So therefore, I would love to see a McCain-Rice ticket. :-p
(how is that for party politics?)
David M Manes
11 Mar 08 at 4:32 pm
That’s too bad. It was such a nice rumor.
David M. Manes
8 Apr 08 at 12:09 pm